Betting, Evils and QPR

People love wagering on the UK's biggest horse race: The Grand National. Even though it's generally a waste of time and money (if you win the office sweepstake it is a fluke). We know this because £300m is wagered on the Aintree race every year, and the bookies seem to win every time (although in 2019 there were some major losses after favourite Tiger Roll romped home to victory).

But then again, everybody's getting rich from the betting game.

 The TV industry made around £200m from advertising sales from bookmakers last year, and people – pushed on by the online technologies that mean that walking into a betting shop a thing of the past, that is driving up the volumes. This is despite the fact that there isn't a lot of love lost between gamblers and gambling companies - 68% of UK bettors consider them untrustworthy and wonder where the catch is, but it is obvious that the crack is worth the risks, anyway. 

It’s an addiction that's generally bad for you (like watching England in the World Cup) – but the country keeps rolling with it crazily. 

In fact, you could say that the Betting Church of Latter Day Punters are the smokers of year's past. Like the smokers who know Big Tobacco's evils but chuff anyway, they gamble happily despite the UK government making them to write - in big words - warnings about possible/ probable addiction. 

But will it really matter in a country where 26 of the top 44 football sides in the UK have betting companies' names emblazoned on their shirts?

We think not. 

And it's going to get bigger the world over. 

About $20 bn was bet (2015 figures), but with the advent of the UK market loosening its sports gambling laws, this number will skyrocket. Hell, even ESPN's doing shows on gambling. We'll see a world where casinos spring up anew, full of ‘sportsbooks’ that aren’t just full for March Madness month (it is estimated that Americans will bet $8.5 billion on the event).

But if you want real money getting bet, then the super-big money's not at The Mirages of Macau and Las Vegas but in the stock exchanges. Trades valued at a total of $1.8 TRILLION are swapped EVERY DAY. 

Of course, they won't call it betting. The casino isn't the stock market, after all, it's an exchange. Gone are the phoning the broker to place a stock order - you do the same task on a computer. And the 'punters' are called ‘investors’ or clients, and claim to be better educated that Your Average Joe Schmo (Question: HOW DID THEY LOSE SO MUCH MONEY IN THE MONTHS LEADING UP TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS THEN?).

And conversely, a lot of betting companies prefer not to be called 'bookies' but instead go with 'exchanges' (in some circles). 

Like gambling companies selling their backsides for business, the likes of 'Evils' like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan et al market themselves introduce themselves heavily (marketing’s banned, folks!) to get customers to trade exclusively through them and not the competition (see: "Trying to reel in The Whale". Customers are taken to the best restaurants, sporting events and probably the best dance clubs (of all kinds) in an effort to get business (if someone tells you that ‘those days are over’, they are lying). Thanks to the internet and research (see "checking out the form guide") you can look at the best pricing and go with the best prices, not the best relationship, although some traders I know go through a couple of certain major players because – despite the fact that "they are nob-ends" (his words not mine)-  “they are hard to stay away from”. The all-encompassing Satanic majesties of the financial world produces “the best execution price than any other banks, and if you execute through them, they are quite good at them at offering other services such as clearing (the timely transfer of funds from seller to buyer, in layman’s terms) and helping to raise money. In other words, better than the Devil you know, no?

But while there is certain loyalty that comes with a relationship with a bookmaker or a financial firm (both will try and entice with different ways), I would beg you not to be loyal to a stock. If your conviction runs out of a stock, the management changes or they’ve just made you too much money and you think that their share price is staggering overpriced, then cut and run. It’s not like the company in the discussion will be sending you a ‘sorry to see you go’ email. I have been convinced of certain stocks and have been burned, but then again I have heard stupid political headlines, been convinced that that will be the end of an industry, and have sold up before the rush (see the marijuana ETF that I sold at 12 ). 

 But is betting on your own sports team OK? After all, you've stuck with them through thick and thin, and you've made friends going up and down the country getting future hangovers on your travels. Normally, I wouldn't normally advocate it. I'm somewhat a stickler for loyalty.

Until now.

Yesterday I put a bet on 'us' - my team Queens Park Rangers - to get relegated and fall into the third tier of English football. 

The 40-1 odds were incredible since the outlook on the pitch is dire. The team is managerless (see ‘Company fires CEO without a plan for replacement’) after a run of results (the "form") is horrific (first came a run of bad luck, and then become a string of dreadful results). The team is poor, pretty old, very naive, and makes too many mistakes, and has the self-confidence of someone coming into their first day of Alcoholics Anonymous. And even our own fanbase is saying: "It only be the incompetence of the teams below us that we stay up." There are people who would question would where loyalties lie, but if you take that out of the equation, QPR's relegation (NYSE: QPRR) is a quite the undervalued stock. (Whisper:  Oh, and there's the knowledge that the investment would cushion the misery (I paid £550 for my season ticket). And if I tempt fate and The Good Lord decides that it is not in His Will for my football team to go down, then thank you, Jesus, for your divine decision, and I’ve only lost a tenner. 

I wish I could have lectured myself about 'loyalty' on some of my fund’s investments. Especially in 2008.